H5N1, The view from Asia: "When, not if..."
Naysayers ("What, me worry?"), suggesting that much pandemic talk is "alarmism," abound in the United States.
Not so in Southeast Asia.
Arrive Hong Kong from Sydney this morning. Only English-language paper out at 5 a.m. is The Standard, the biggest HK business paper. Page 1, News Section, blaring (no exaggeration) top-of-the-paper headline: "Tough Bird Flu Action Ahead." Among other things, detailed quarantine plans were explained—they are Draconian.
Summarizing the headlines and personal discussions in Taiwan today, I believe the mood/expectation is: "When, not if ..."
Couple that with, among other things, HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt's interview in the current Time [get article for a fee—CM], now talking about tens of millions of possible deaths, and, well ...
Personally, I am moving into Full Alarmist Mode. Putting on my analytic hat, I shall assume that there is a 25% chance of a catastrophic economic (not to mention physical) occurrence as early as the coming summer. I will begin to make significant business and personal financial decisions immediately based on that likelihood. (bold added)
To my mind there are, on this issue, two kinds of people: alarmists and fools. There are indeed many reasons to believe that the worst will not occur. But reverting to business-school language that I normally find anathema, there is utterly no reason to believe that there is not a non-trivial statistical likelihood that a catastrophic event of epic proportion will occur within the next 12 months. (Sorry for the triple negative.)
Undisguised "alarmism" is clearly the Asian mood. Perhaps we should pay attention to those pinioned in the eye of the storm.
Link to TomPeters.com
[Note: I don't want to see this happen. Still, we funeral directors have a lot to loose if this thing all goes to hell in the proverbial handbasket. We are talking the potential for 150,000,000 yes million people dead from this virus worldwide and a catastrophic failure of our economic systems. Stuff we take for granted could just stop. Everything from package deliver to fire and police support could disappear for months. For instance, what happens if I can't get heating oil delivered at my house next winter because the truck drivers are sick, dead or to scared to leave their houses. How do I get food if the Stop and Shop gets shut down for quarantine purposes? Never mind how do I get caskets and supplies to bury people with. Serious stuff, it requires our steady attention. BT]
Joan Didion Book
I have read half of The Year of Magical Thinking (see below for a summary and link) and I recommend it highly to those who want to learn about grief. Direct and insightful, Joan Didion gives us a rare insiders view of grieving penned by a true professional writer.
It is not a feel good book about funeral service. The funeral director comes and goes in half a page and her journey continues. (Perhaps we can learn something from this)
With the holidays fast approaching, this might make a great gift alternative for some of your clergy and caregivers.
October 26, 2005 in Comments | Permalink | Comments (0)